Vanishing Hindus of Manipur

Manipur is a Hindu enclave surrounded by Christian population on all sides. Vaishnavaism was made the state religion in 18th century by King "Pamheiba" and it remained as that till the defeat of Manipur by the British in 1891. The Meitei claims descent from Lord Arjuna. Hindu Meitei under the leadership of Maharaja Churachand Singh formed the Nikhil Hindu Manipuri Mahasabha to regulate their religious activities during 1934.

However, recently we are observing huge decline in the Hindu population in Manipur. In just two decades, the Hindus have declined from 70% to 45% of the population. Usually Christians in Manipur have a higher birth rate as compared to the Hindus. But more and more Hindus are converting to Christianity recently.

Demography

According to the 2001 Census, Hindus comprised 45% of the population of Manipur. About 5% of all the Hindus are Loi (Sudra) and a few hundreds are Yathibi (Dalit). The remaining Hindu population comprises of Meitei Kshatriyas and Meitei Brahmins.

Census Data

NFHS-3 Census Report, which was released in 2010, summarizes the pathetic situation of the Hindus in Manipur. On average, a Hindu Manipuri woman is having just 2.35 children in her life (just above the 2.33 needed for population growth). Christian women are having 3.71 children each and Muslim women are having 4.15 children each.

As the Hindu population decreases, terrorist organisations like NSCN are likely to strengthen their hold on the general population and demands for secession are likely to follow. Just look at the case of Nagaland. In 1960s, Jawaharlal Nehru opened up Tripura and Nagaland for Christian missionaries. Tripuris have a long Hindu history and were mostly unsympathetic to Christian conversion, and only a few Kukis and Halam converted there. But in Nagaland, almost 95% of the population converted and now the remaining Hindus, mostly the Dima people are facing forced religious conversions.

Religious tensions are getting more and more visible in Manipur. In 1993, there was a major Hindu vs Muslim riot, in which more than a hundred people were killed. Tensions between Hindus and Christians are also worsening.

Destruction of Hinduism in Kerala

The reason why I chose Kerala as the first state for my research is because of it's uniqueness. And perhaps.... because I worked there for almost an year as a volunteer with the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. And sadly...... Kerala is the region in all of South India, where Hinduism is facing the highest risk of extinction.

Demography

Officially, Kerala is a Hindu majority state with around 55% of the total population being classified as Hindu. But in reality only about 40% is Hindu, with the rest being divided among the Muslims and Christians almost equally. This is due to the fact that huge numbers of Dalits (somewhere around 2/3 to 3/4th) and OBCs are actually converted Christians who declare themselves as Hindu in order to receive the reservation benefits. Also, the census undercounts Muslim immigrants working in Gulf nations.

Census Data

NFHS-3 Census Report, which was released a few days ago contained some startling information. According to the report, women in Kerala are having just 1.93 children in their lifetime (to obtain a stable population, 2.16 children per woman is necessary, taking in to account that more boys are born on average compared to girls). 1.93 is not that bad, even China is having a fertility rate below that amount. But the report also gives religion-wise statistics, and that is where the problem starts.

According to NFHS, Hindu women on average are having around 1.53 children per woman, Christian women an average of 2.11 and Muslim women an average of 2.46. It can be seen that the Hindu birth rate is no way near replacement level. And if I am not wrong, the Hindu population in Kerala is already experiencing a natural population decline.

And it is not only the low birth rate which is causing the destruction of the Hindu community in Kerala. Although they comprise only 40% of the total population, Hindus account for more than 90% of the reported suicides in Kerala. And financially, they perform much worse compared to the affluent Muslim and Christian communities. The past two decades have seen a flurry of evangelical missionary activity targeting financially broken Hindus in Kerala. Hundreds of thousands are believed to have been converted to Christianity and many more being assimilated in to Islam. Also, there is a recent phenomenon called Love Jihad, in which radical Islamic youth are trained to convert Hindu girls.

Ethnic differentials can also be seen among the birth rate patterns. For example, Muslims of Malabar are having a higher birth rate compared to their co-ethnics in South and Central Kerala. Also, while the fertility rate amongst the Syrian Christians (the most affluent group in Kerala) remains low at 1.6 children per woman, that among the Latin Christians is reported at 1.9. The Evangelical / Pentecostal / Charismatic Christian groups on average have a fertility of around 2.5 children per woman.

Among the Hindus, not a single community is having replacement level fertility. It was measured at 1.39 children per women for Forward Castes (1.9 for Brahmins, 1.3 for Nairs and 1.9 for Vaishyas), 1.74 for OBCs (Ezhavas and Kammalars usually have a higher than average birth rate), 1.32 for SCs and 2.0 for STs. In other states of India, the poorer most section is the one which is having the highest birth rate. But in Kerala, it is the section which is having the lowest birth rate. Even though they are much better educated than the Dalits of any other state, most of the Keralite SCs live in extreme poverty.

No community can make sure their survival with such extremely low birth rates. For example each generation of Dalit Hindus in Kerala will number only about 60% of that of the preceding generation. If Gen I number 100 people, Gen II will number only 60. And Gen III will number only 36. Even the Japanese (Japan is considered to be the country with the lowest birth rate), are having a fertility rate of 1.37 children per women, above that of the Keralite SCs and Nairs.

Since no one has ever composed a population pyramid for Kerala, I am attaching that for Japan (Year 2050). Notice that the number of people in the age group 75-80 outnumber those aged 0-4 by almost three times. (Imagine something even worse for Keralite Hindus).

It seems that the Dalits and Nairs of Kerala will be history within the next two or three generations, while the remaining Hindus will be assimilated in to Christianity or Islam.